Discover the Surprising Factor Boosting Today’s Housing Market!
As home prices soar to dizzying heights and affordability hits rock bottom, many are buzzing about the possibility of another housing crash. But hold on—just because the current buying conditions feel tight doesn’t automatically mean we’ll witness a dramatic drop in home values.
Instead, brace yourself for a scenario where we might experience years of stagnant growth, with real home prices failing to keep up with inflation. This means homeowners shouldn’t expect their property values to soar like they did in the past.
For those of you waiting for a crash to swoop in and snag a home, it might be time to adjust your expectations. Disappointment could linger in the air longer than you think.
A Picture’s Worth a Thousand Words: Then vs. Now
Take a look at this eye-opening chart from the Federal Reserve. It breaks down the vintage of today’s mortgages—essentially, when they were created.
You’ll notice a staggering 60% of outstanding home loans were issued between 2020 and 2022, during the golden age of historically low 30-year fixed mortgage rates. In stark contrast, a whopping 75% of home loans were birthed during the tumultuous years of 2006 to 2008.
Why does this matter? Because back then, underwriting standards were at an all-time low, resulting in a housing market built on shaky ground. Many of those loans shouldn’t have even existed, leading to a market propped up by an unstable foundation.
When Easy Credit Dried Up, the Market Crashed
Once the easy credit faucet was turned off, the housing market plummeted. The aftermath of 2008 brought about an avalanche of short sales, foreclosures, and staggering double-digit declines in home prices across the nation.
The rise had only been sustainable because financing was loosening and appraisals were inflating as we climbed. We were witnessing stated income loans, no-doc loans, and loans with a loan-to-value ratio exceeding 100%. Homeowners were refinancing like clockwork to cash out their equity for vacations and luxury cars.
Then, when the music stopped, reality hit hard.
Today’s Mortgage Landscape: A Whole New Ball Game
Fast forward to today, and most mortgages are 30-year fixed-rate loans with interest rates between 2% and 4%. This is a stark contrast to the past in terms of credit quality.
Moreover, many homeowners today boast low loan-to-value ratios since they bought before the market skyrocketed. They’re enjoying fixed monthly payments that often cost less than renting a comparable home.
In short, their mortgage is the best deal in town, making it hard to find a better option.
Let’s not forget that the 2010s saw underbuilding, leading to a supply crunch that keeps demand from spiraling out of control. Conversely, in 2008, mortgages were often terrible deals that left homeowners drowning in debt with no equity and a choice between a worthless home and a more affordable rental.
Navigating Today’s Housing Risks
They say history doesn’t repeat, but it certainly has a rhythm. While it’s not 2008 all over again, we still need to address the unique challenges facing today’s market.
Let’s be real: costs for everything from cars to groceries have shot up significantly. Homeowners are grappling with rising insurance rates—some skyrocketing by 50% or more—along with higher property taxes and increased maintenance costs.
While those low mortgage rates are a blessing, the overall cost of living has surged, leading to potential financial stress that’s not directly tied to mortgages.
So, what does the future hold? It’s anyone’s guess, but homeowners who bought before 2021 are likely in a solid position, enjoying ultra-low rates and prices that seem like a steal compared to today’s market.
Recent Buyers: Caught in a Tight Spot
As displayed in the chart above, mortgage lending volumes took a nosedive as rates soared in early 2022. This drop is actually a good sign, indicating we have stricter lending standards in place today.
However, countless homebuyers have entered the market since 2022, often facing higher loan amounts due to elevated purchase prices and interest rates. They might be dealing with temporary buydowns that will reset to higher rates, alongside steep property taxes and insurance premiums.
In some cases, renting could be a more viable option than owning, especially in certain cities where rents are more affordable than mortgage payments.
For those recent buyers, the prospect of selling might prove challenging as the resale value may not cover their outstanding balance. While short sales may not make a strong comeback, localized downward pressure on home prices could complicate matters.
Let’s also consider the surge of short-term rentals (STRs) flooding the market. In some areas, competition has become fierce, and homeowners may feel the urge to sell if vacancy rates keep climbing.
Housing Affordability: A Graver Concern Than 2006
Despite these challenges, it’s crucial to recognize that housing affordability today is worse than it was back in 2006. Yet, the tight financing environment and low loan volume make a significant downturn seem unlikely.
That said, real estate is always local, and certain cities could feel the pinch more than others. Keep an eye on the home builders—they’re facing pivotal changes with inventory levels on the rise.
As we approach 2025, I suggest keeping a watchful eye on the housing market as these trends unfold. But don’t lose sleep over it just yet; we’re looking at an affordability issue rather than a full-blown financing crisis like we saw back in the day, which is what typically fuels bubbles.
